Bears Draft

In some circles, there has been a lot of complaining about the Bears and their QB position. "Why didn't they draft a QB?" The simple answer is that a QB ain't gonna help anytime soon, and this years QB crop sucked. But that's not enough for certain name recognition loving fans.

Jon for example thinks we should take a QB EVERY year until we get a stud. Look, the fact is that drafting QBs is hard. The fact that Tom Brady was a 6th rounder proves that. Basically speaking it's a crap shoot. Besides, there's only one QB on the field - so the likelihood that a drafted QB will contribute is drastically less than other positions, where PT might be easier to come by.

So I did a little research. Other than one or two spots here, it looks like JA did the right thing by NOT drafting QBs. Here are the QBs drafted, along with the Bears player taken most recently before that pick.

Kevin Kolb Greg Olsen
John Beck Greg Olsen
Drew Stanton Greg Olsen
Trent Edwards Dan Bauzin
Isaiah Stanback Michael Okwo\Garrett Wolfe
Jeff Rowe Josh Beekman
Troy Smith Kevin Payne\Corey Graham
Jordan Palmer Kevin Payne\Corey Graham
Tyler Thigpen Kevin Payne\Corey Graham
Kellen Clemens Danieal Manning
Tavaris Jackson Devin Hester
Charlie Whitehurst Dusty Dvoracek
Brodie Croyle Dusty Dvoracek
Brad Smith Dusty Dvoracek
Ingle Martin Jamar Williams
Omar Jacobs Jamar Williams
Reggie McNeal Mark Anderson
Bruce Gradkowski Mark Anderson
DJ Shockley Tyler Reed
Aaron Rogers Cedric Benson
Jason Campbell Cedric Benson
Charlie Frye Mark Bradley
Andrew Walter Mark Bradley
David Greene Mark Bradley
Kyle Orton -
Stefan LeFlors Kyle Orton
Kyle Orlovsky Airese Curry
Adrian McPherson Airese Curry
Derek Anderson Chris Harris
James Killan Rod Wilson
Matt Cassel Rod Wilson
Ryan Fitzpatrick Rod Wilson
JP Losman Tommie Harris
Matt Schaub Bernard Berrian
Luke McCown Bernard Berrian
Craig Krenzel -
Andy Hall Craig Krenzel
Josh Harris Craig Krenzel
Jim Sorgi Craig Krenzel
Jeff Smoker Craig Krenzel
John Navarre Craig Krenzel
Cody Pickett Alfonso Marshall
Casey Bramlett Alfonso Marshall
Matt Mauck Alfonso Marshall
BJ Symons Alfonso Marshall
Bradlee Van Pelt Alfonso Marshall

Khyle's Fearless Mock draft

No.	Player	School
1	Jake Long, OT	Michigan
2	Chris Long, DE	Virginia
3	Glenn Dorsey, DT	LSU
4	Vernon Gholston, DE	Ohio St.
5	Derrick Harvey, DE	Florida
6	Darren McFadden, RB	Arkansas
7	Keith Rivers, LB	USC
8	Matt Ryan, QB	Boston College
9	Sedrick Ellis, DT	USC
10	Leodis McKelvin, CB	Troy
11	Devin Thomas, WR	Michigan St.
12	Branden Albert, G/OT	Virginia
13	Jeff Otah, OT	Pitt
14	Chris Williams, OT	Vanderbilt

Bears Round 2: Brian Brohm (Henne to Dolphins, Flacco to Falcons)
Bears Round 3: Jeremy Zuttah (OG\OT, Rutgers), Kevin Smith (RB, Central Florida)

*Notes: Clady 'falls' a little bit here. I could be way off, but at the end of the day, Denver goes with Albert who is the #2 lineman. The Panthers take a mauler with huge upside. Williams to the Bears because Jerry Angelo thinks Williams has a higher floor than Clady.

Round 2: Brohm is the best of the 2nd tier of QBs. Henne and Flacco have their suitors, but Brohm will be the 2nd best QB in this class three years from now.

Round 3: Bears start Zuttah at OG, and transfer him to ORT after John Tait goes away. They also get Kevin Smith, a productive, tough if not flashy back.

Fearless projection: Cedric Benson does not play a down for the Bears in 08. He will either be cut or on the DL depending on how serious his injury is.

He's Such a Romo

Heard and read a lot about the QB matchup for Sunday night's game. Can you figure out which QB is which in these comparisons after two games?

29-53 54.7% completion %
32-57 56.1% completion %

The first one is Romo - not the all-time great QB that everyone is talking about (Brady's % is 79% by the way-sick.) I heard a lot of analysis last night on radio and HBO and they conclude that completion percentage and the TD/INT ratio are the most important stats to look at. Romo's % is horse-crap (28th in league) and he's played crappy Ds. He will get rattled Sunday and the Bears D will punish him. Peanut will have a big game.
Final Score: Bears-24 Dallas-13

The other QB with 56% is Rex.

NoFunLeague Predictions

September	9	@ Chargers	W
September	16	CHIEFS	W
September	23	COWBOYS	W
September	30	@ Lions	W
October	7	@ Packers	W
October	14	VIKINGS	W
October	21	@ Eagles	L
October	28	LIONS	W
November	11	@ Raiders	W
November	18	@ Seahawks	L
November	25	BRONCOS	W
December	2	GIANTS	W
December	6	@ Redskins	W
December	17	@ Vikings	L
December	23	PACKERS	W
December	30	SAINTS	W

13-3 (5-1 in Central)

NFC North: Bears
NFC East: Eagles
NFC South: Panthers
NFC West: Seahags
Wild Cards: Cowboys, Saints

AFC East: Pats
AFC North: Ravens
AFC South: Colts
AFC West: Chargers
Wild Card: Broncos, Jags

NFC Champ: Bears
AFC Champ: Ravens
Super Bowl Champ: Bears

Offensive ROY: Calvin Johnson
Defensive ROY: Amobi Okoye
MVP: Donovan McNabb
Defensive MVP: Tommie Harris
Bold Prediction: Favre's career ends suddenly
Coach of the Year: Andy Reid

Fearless NFL Predictions

September	9	@ Chargers	14-24	L
September	16	CHIEFS	27-13	W
September	23	COWBOYS	24-10	W
September	30	@ Lions	17-10	W
October	7	@ Packers	21-16	W
October	14	VIKINGS	38-21	W
October	21	@ Eagles	10-23	L
October	28	LIONS	31-13	W
November	11	@ Raiders	48-0	W
November	18	@ Seahawks	14-24	L
November	25	BRONCOS	17-27	L
December	2	GIANTS	24-13	W
December	6	@ Redskins	27-10	W
December	17	@ Vikings	28-3	W
December	23	PACKERS	28-7	W
December	30	SAINTS	17-34	L

11-5 (6-0 in Central)

NFC East: Philly
NFC North: Bears
NFC South: Saints
NFC West: 49ers
Wild Card: Dallas, Seattle

AFC East: New England
AFC North: Ravens
AFC South: Indy
AFC West: San Diego
Wild Card: Denver, Cincinnati

NFC Champ: Bears
AFC Champ: Patriots
Super Bowl Champ: Patriots

Offensive ROY: Adrian Peterson
Defensive ROY: LaRon Landry
MVP: Tom Brady
Coach of the Year: Mike Nolan, SF

Moving On

The fault for the Bears loss in the SuperBowl? Peyton Manning and Tony Dungy. As much as people are talking about why the Bears lost, it was obvious that the Colts won. They were the better team.

The defensive game plan was to not take chances, hope Manning got impatient and let the Bears Offense keep them off the field. At the end of the day, they Bears gave up 22 points. 7 were on a broken coverage. I'd say that was an acceptable result for that match up. The problem however is that they couldn't get off the field, and the offense couldn't stay on the field.

The Bears offense however was awful. I know people are blaming this on Rex, but it's simply not his fault. The offensive line did not play well. Roberto Garza was a turnstile. But the biggest goat, to me, was Ron Turner. One example, he sends Thomas Jones in motion on 2nd and 1. Garza lets a Colt defender through, and Rex is turned into a bad Benny Hill sketch.

Turner did not have a good game. The running game only ok. Outside of the one big Jones run, they average just over 4 ypc. That's not enough against the Colts D. Turner didn't really put the ball into Grossman's hands until it was late in the game.

Sure, Grossman had the ball down by 5 with a chance to drive the field and score a TD to go ahead. But with zero consistency in the entire game, it was almost too late.

Now it's time to look ahead to next season. It's only going to get harder.

One thing is clear

The Bears were beat by a better team.

How i see it

The Colts are still, inexplicably, 7 point favorites. That number is still very high. When my dad was in Vegas in October, we both put money down on the Bears to win the Super Bowl at +250. The money line right now is +210. It's silly.

Everyone is picking the Colts. And hey, they have the star QB. The sexy position. But history is on the side of the Bears. And the Bears defense is far and away better than the Colts unit. There are a couple statistical analysis of past Super Bowl winners: ACTA Sports (here and here), and some guy from DallasNews.com (here). In each case the Bears dominate the important stats. According to ACTA measures, the last 11 teams to have a significantly better defense won the game. The Bears win 9-2-1 including all eight of the most important categories.

For the Dallas guy, the Bears have the edge in 10 of 13 categories, including the most important 10.

All this doesn't make plays on Sunday. So how does this play out?

Colts O vs. Bears D:
I think the Bears game plan will be to keep things in front of them, and force Manning into nickel and diming them down the field. I would guess you'll see a lot of Briggs and Urlacher at the line of scrimmage at the snap only to go back into coverage, hoping to force Jeff Saturday into changing the line protection schemes. That will allow the Bears DEs to have one on one against their tackels, a matchup they should win.

The Colts running game is primarily a stretch game. They rely on cutback lanes and speed. This doesn't match up well with the Bears defense, which is predicated on speed and pursuit. But it will be critical for the Bears defenders to maintain their gaps.

Special Teams:
Huge advantage for Bears. You have to think Dungy will not let Hester return the ball. That should give the Bears good field position throughout the game.

Bears O vs. Colts D:
The Colts have stiffened against the run in the playoffs. In the chiefs game, they couldn't get any first downs. So even though they stayed with it as long as they could, they didn't get enough rushes in. The Patriots at some point just stopped running the ball. The Ravens game is a little more troubling.

The key for Grossman and this offense will be getting some yardage early. If the Colts key on the run early, it will be critical for the Bears to move the ball while avoid risky long passes. I think Jason McKie will play a big part early with some outlet passes.

-----------

Bottom line: The Bears can't play catch up. If they get down 14 points, it isn't going to be pretty. But if it gets close, I think their running game should take over in the second half. And if the Colts give up the run early, I think our passing defense matches up well against Manning. Obviously he won't be shut down, but I think the Bears defense should negate their passing game enough to win.

Interesting

John Dewan, who has the unfortunate duty of appearing on Mike Murphy's broadcast each week is a Stats geek. He used to be at Stats Inc. Last week as Joe pointed out, he used his system to pick the Bears over the Saints. (He also picked the Patriots, but we can ignore that for the moment).

This week he released his prediction for the Super Bowl. Bears over Colts. Of the categories he ranks, the Bears win 9 of the 12 categories with one tie.

The line at BoDog is Bears +7 at the time of writing. It'll be interesting to see what it goes off at just before kickoff. My guess is that it goes down as the press starts making cases for the Bears as underdogs.

(photo @ Chicagosports.com)

All the Bears had to do was put an 8th man in the box, and let Sean Payton out-think himself. The Saints didn't even try to run the game. When I was watching, I kept waiting for the sideline report saying McAllister was injured. But no, the Saints decided to attack the Bears with the pass almost exclusively. To Sean Payton, I say thank you.

It's going to be an uphill climb against the Colts, but it's certainly a winnable game.

Official Prediction

Bears 27, Saints 13.

The Saints are a very good team. They have a great offense - and it would be no shock to see them win the game. But they won't. Here's why.

The experts are all picking the Saints, the money is picking the Bears. I vote with money. The experts are just old dogs that piss on the floor when their owner returns home from work. You can't blame them, they can't help themselves; the Saints are a better story. The Bears story peaked midway through the season, and people lost interest. It was pretty clear they had the division won, and there were no serious contenders for home field. So there was nothing to talk about - except point out every weakness and hole.

The Saints on the other hand, have been fighting the whole season. Plus they are a feel good team on many levels.

But stories don't win games. You hear all the noise about the Saint's #1 offense? The Bears outscored them. They held opponents to fewer points. The Bears point differential was 10.8, the Saints 5.7.

The Saints give up 1-2 monster plays per game. The Bears not so much.

I think it's simple. If the Bears front seven beat the Saints running game, this will be a clear win. If the Saints run the ball consistently, they will have a great chance to win. You might point out that the Bears run D hasn't been that great since Brown and Harris were out.

But if you look back at the Seahawks game, you'll notice that the Hawks couldn't count on positive yardage. In key situations they were either stuffed or passed the ball. Did they get 10 yard runs? Yes, but the Bears were successful enough to force them into the passing game to get big plays for the D.

Player of the Game: Cedric Benson.

Moments

When we look back at this game, I think we'll remember Rex's pass to Davis and Gould's FG that it set up.

But Benson's fight for extra yardage that set up the tying FG was just as important.

In other news, I counted only one egregious Rex TO (Moose was the problem on the other one). Only one scary Devin Hester moment. And about 4 close calls on balls that Rex could have thrown to the bad guys.

It was good enough for a win. It won't be good enough against the Saints.

On the Tank

The kid is obviously troubled. It was a minor thing when he was arrested for telling a cop he would kick his ass. It was a minor thing when he brought a handgun into a nightclub.

Photo @ CNN/SI (click for story)

Then he gets arrested and the Gurnee police chief says that the children were in danger. Loaded guns. Accessible to children. And you know what? He would have missed this one game, and then come back and played through the playoffs.

The NFL wouldn't have suspended him until the legal system ran its course (Ricky Manning Jr. knows as well as anyone).

From a Bears perspective, it's a distraction, but nothing maor. Hey, I'm a sucker for 4rth chances. And it wouldn't really have cost him or his team that much to miss the game against the Bucs - or even the rest of the year.

He had to spend much of Friday answering questions about his arrest. He had some time to reflect on how he was living, the choices he was making. So what did he do? He talked to his boyhood friend, roomate and 'bodyguard,' and they decide to go out on the town that same night.

At this point, I'm struggling to think of what the logic was. "Hey Willie, I wanna get drunk and forget how stupid I've been. But it's not good enough to get drunk at home, let's go out in public the day after the arrest."

What happens? He gets harrassed and his roomate gets killed. And according to the Tribune, he initially lies to police about being there.

It does not matter if 'he's really a good guy.' It does not matter if he grew up in a bad neighborhood or what the circumstances were behind the shooting. It does not matter that he's troubled. It does not matter how good a player he is, or what his cap number is, or how thin his loss would leave the Bears. He has to be gone.

I don't care if he's cut, or just sent home for the season. If the Bears want to help him out, I think that would be a great idea. Just as long as he's not around Halas Hall.