Tuesday, May 27, 2008

The Bulls Draft

Who should they take? I tend to look at things from the perspective of "what role is this player going to play on a championship caliber team. Let's look at the Bulls roster shall we?

  • Gordon: Small SG, can't play D. His PER last season was 16.52 (average being 15).
  • Hinrich: PG who simply cannot shoot. His PER was 13.13 - representing a monumental 4 point drop from the previous year.
  • Sefalosha: good defensively, can't shoot
  • Hughes: hasn't been average since his contract year. Can't shoot. Must get to line (and handle the ball) to be effective
None of those guys is particularly good at creating their own shot. Captain Kirk got maligned last year, but he's not a horrible player. If everything is going well around him, I think he can be a starting PG on a really good team as long as there are 4 players better than him on the floor. Gordon, from my observations, thinks his talent and production warrant a contract completely out of range with his skills, which are suited to being a Vinny Johnson type of a role. He can't run a team or play D. I just don't see how he's a starter on a good team.

Let's look at the forwards:
  • Drew Gooden: Not particularly good. Perhaps a very good bench player, but marginal as starter.
  • Tyrus Thomas: no post up game to speak of. Has an attitude issue. Incredibly athletic. Still has upside (at least for one more year). Fast.
  • Noah: good rookie year. Good defensively, good passer. Better, cheaper, younger Ben Wallace-lite. Speedy for big man.
  • Deng: In an off year, the best Bull.
  • Nocioni: bad contract, over-rated player. Maybe a decent bench player, but likely his greatest value will be when he's in his walk year.
The only player there you really really want to keep is Deng. He's possibly a top 3 player on a championship team. Thomas has the potential to develop into a nice player, but he's really going to need to play at a faster pace to be fully effective. But keep this in mind, statistically speaking - Tyrus was a better player than Hinrich last year (based on PER).

Either way, I think Gordon has to go. His contract will not be in proportion to his game. Sooner or later his ego will come down to his production, but it won't be in this contract.

If they take Rose, they have to trade Thomas. If they take Beasley, they probably have to trade Thomas (unless they find a buyer for Nocioni).

If Paxson takes Beasley, he is doing it knowing that Beasley is primarily an offensive player. One with character questions (albeit small ones). One who might struggle with NBA double teams early on. Paxson does not have a team full of shooters who can capitalize off of the double teams Beasley will surely get.

Rose on the other hand is a good height for PG, a legit 6'3". He plays D, and is incredibly athletic and fast. He can create for other players exactly as the roster is comprised today. Once Rose is up to speed, I thin Thomas, Noah, and Deng will be big beneficiaries.

Surrounding Options:
Brand: Clips need a PG and scoring. However, he doesn't fit with the uptempo game I would envision with Rose. And besides, the Clips don't generally pay players top dollar in FA (Tim Thomas excepted).

Marion: They need a PG in the worst way. Marion is locked in for a long time, at a high price. I think it's within the realm of possibility that they deal Marion to the Bulls for a package surrounding Hinrich. Normally, I would think that's a stretch. But given that he was traded for a negative value Shaq, anything's possible.

Rose+Beasley: Think of the Heat with Wade, Marion, Hinrich, Gordon and Tyrus Thomas. That would be a pretty powerful, young team. Is it enough for Beasley? Probably not. Would it make sense for the Bulls to push back the plan a couple years? Hell ya.

One under the radar guy I would really love is Andris Biedrins from the Warriors. I don't see a good match between the two teams, but I would love to see him on the Bulls. He's under-rated and would really round out the big man rotation.

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