How i see it

The Colts are still, inexplicably, 7 point favorites. That number is still very high. When my dad was in Vegas in October, we both put money down on the Bears to win the Super Bowl at +250. The money line right now is +210. It's silly.

Everyone is picking the Colts. And hey, they have the star QB. The sexy position. But history is on the side of the Bears. And the Bears defense is far and away better than the Colts unit. There are a couple statistical analysis of past Super Bowl winners: ACTA Sports (here and here), and some guy from DallasNews.com (here). In each case the Bears dominate the important stats. According to ACTA measures, the last 11 teams to have a significantly better defense won the game. The Bears win 9-2-1 including all eight of the most important categories.

For the Dallas guy, the Bears have the edge in 10 of 13 categories, including the most important 10.

All this doesn't make plays on Sunday. So how does this play out?

Colts O vs. Bears D:
I think the Bears game plan will be to keep things in front of them, and force Manning into nickel and diming them down the field. I would guess you'll see a lot of Briggs and Urlacher at the line of scrimmage at the snap only to go back into coverage, hoping to force Jeff Saturday into changing the line protection schemes. That will allow the Bears DEs to have one on one against their tackels, a matchup they should win.

The Colts running game is primarily a stretch game. They rely on cutback lanes and speed. This doesn't match up well with the Bears defense, which is predicated on speed and pursuit. But it will be critical for the Bears defenders to maintain their gaps.

Special Teams:
Huge advantage for Bears. You have to think Dungy will not let Hester return the ball. That should give the Bears good field position throughout the game.

Bears O vs. Colts D:
The Colts have stiffened against the run in the playoffs. In the chiefs game, they couldn't get any first downs. So even though they stayed with it as long as they could, they didn't get enough rushes in. The Patriots at some point just stopped running the ball. The Ravens game is a little more troubling.

The key for Grossman and this offense will be getting some yardage early. If the Colts key on the run early, it will be critical for the Bears to move the ball while avoid risky long passes. I think Jason McKie will play a big part early with some outlet passes.

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Bottom line: The Bears can't play catch up. If they get down 14 points, it isn't going to be pretty. But if it gets close, I think their running game should take over in the second half. And if the Colts give up the run early, I think our passing defense matches up well against Manning. Obviously he won't be shut down, but I think the Bears defense should negate their passing game enough to win.